Learning to do Math in your Head

Posted in Geek, Personal Growth on January 23rd, 2010 by leodirac – 1 Comment

I recently picked up a book called Secrets of Mental Math written by one of my college math professors.  It has very practical advice on how to learn to multiply large numbers in your head.  He gives practical advice on necessary skills like addition, subtraction, and related mathematical trivia.  To practice multiplying numbers in your head, I’ve created a fast, simple javascript tool which you can access from your phone at http://leodirac.com/mathquiz .

The author of the book is Arthur Benjamin.  He gave a demonstration of his mad skillz at TED a while back, which I’m embedding here because it’s awesome.

Migrating this blog has been fun because it’s forced me to look over a lot of the old content I’ve written.  A couple years ago I found Benjamin’s Ted talk, which has inspired all this craziness.  I think it’s good to keep the brain fresh by taxing skills that one might not have used in a while.

Apple’s subscription music service (part 2)

Posted in Apple, Gadgets, Music on January 18th, 2010 by leodirac – Be the first to comment

Back in 2007, I predicted that Apple would launch a subscription music service probably around 2010. My logic was based on how long it would take to get enough connected iPods into the world. Having spent a bunch of time with an unconnected mp3 player with a subscription music service I knew this was necessary. I had been using a Sansa mp3 player, which was playing content from Rhapsody’s subscription service. The device was designed to essentially brick itself every 30 days unless you plugged it into a PC. This was necessary to ensure that you were still paying for the music that it had stored, since it couldn’t connect itself. The experience sucked.  Jobs would never let this fly. But now there’s a whole slew of media devices (iPhones, iPod touches, and the new slate) which have their own connection to the outside world and wouldn’t need to be plugged in every month to verify that you’ve paid up.

iSlate is rumored to have a bunch of new content associated with it.  Particularly print content.  Print publishers will probably want consumers to sign up for subscriptions.  So Apple’s probably going to be introducing people to the concept of content subscriptions on their portable devices, likely with iPhone OS 4.0 which probably will run the iSlate and old iPhones and iPod touches too.  So I wouldn’t be surprised if you can get an all-you-can-eat music subscription service available too.  We’ll see.  It’s pure speculation, but it would make sense.  I’d be particularly tickled if my off-the-cuff prediction of dates from 2007 turned out to be right.

iSlate’s amazing tactile feedback keyboard

Posted in Apple, Gadgets, User Experience on January 15th, 2010 by leodirac – 1 Comment

There’s lots of hubbub about Apple’s upcoming tablet device, but the stuff people are talking about I’m not actually all that excited about.  A giant iPhone?  Sure, that’ll be nice.  A color e-reader that can run apps.  Okay, I guess that’s better than kindle.  A super-thin netbook without a real keyboard.  Meh.  Actually, I don’t know that I’d want one at all.  Unless…

Unless Apple has come up with a better way to do soft keyboards, that is.  When I say “soft keyboard” I mean the kind of keyboard that appears on a touch screen and has no physical keys.  I’ve complained about the iPhone’s keyboard for a while.  While it’s true that people do get better at using these, I still don’t think I’ll ever be nearly as fast or accurate (even with smart correction) with a soft keyboard as I was with my blackberry.  I think that’s probably true on average for most people.  The basic reason is the lack of tactile feedback.  With a physical keyboard, if my fingers are slightly off target, they are guided to the right place by feel.

I’ve argued for some time now that the way to solve this is by figuring out how to make a touch-screen display with tactile feedback.  How would such a device work?  Physically I couldn’t tell you.  But what we’d need would be a way to electronically manipulate texture in a clear material.  A plastic with a matrix of cells that could expand or contract under electronic control.  So the software could create bumps where each of the keys are.  This would allow a software-reconfigurable gadget that could be almost as usable as a dedicated-purpose device.

This is very different from what is commonly referred to as “haptic feedback” on some of today’s gadgets like the Nexus One.  Here, the phone’s vibrator pulses a bit when you press a soft key.  This is a kind of feedback which is tactile in that you feel it, and it gives you information about your interaction with the device without having to look at the screen.  It certainly helps.  But it is not going to improve basic typing for a critical reason — it can’t help guide fingers to the right place.  The basic act of positioning fingers on controls is still basically open loop, feed forward, without guidance.  What I’m referring to as tactile feedback helps the fingers find the right spots to press without looking.  Today’s haptic feedback can’t do that.

To be clear, true tactile feedback like this almost certainly doesn’t exist yet.  This kind of pure technological innovation basically always starts in universities or government run labs.  The ROI on pure research into unproven technology is so low that it doesn’t make sense for companies to invest there.  Even if a company proved this was possible (which AFAIK hasn’t been done yet) they’d need to figure out how to manufacture it at scale before they could sell a device with it.  Last time I predicted it would be about 2012 before we saw these.  Even though Jobs almost certainly foresees the value of such a system, Apple’s expertise is not in material science.  Wired speculated about such a keyboard based on Apple’s patent filings, but what they describe seems a bit too sci-fi for me to believe.

If they have come up with something new and cool, it’s going to be a smarter way to use basically existing hardware.  I’m gonna guess it’s probably something like a touch screen which is pressure sensitive, so you can rest your fingers on it without indicating a “button press”, making typing more natural.  You could combine this with fixed, transparent dimples on the screen under the positions where the keys are, and you’d do pretty well.  Restrict the keyboard to only work in landscape mode and you only need one set of dimples.  This would be a huge improvement in usability and the biggest technological breakthrough would be the ability to distinguish a soft push from a hard push on a capacitive touch-screen.  Like by how much surface of your finger is on it.

Regardless of what Apple’s actually managed to achieve, I wish them the best.  They’re really pushing the envelope on human-computer interactions.  If they’ve done anything significant to improve soft keyboards, they will have once again done something that the entire rest of the industry will want to emulate, and I’ll tip my hat to them.

Photo courtesy of hradcanska

Escape from Typepad to Wordpress

Posted in Hacks, Tech Industry on January 9th, 2010 by leodirac – Be the first to comment

It took a long time, but EmbracingChaos has finally escaped form Typepad.  About a year ago (just before the end of the previous billing cycle) I started trying to move this blog to blogger.  I like Google’s pace of development and wanted to hop on the blogger train and get automatic upgrades for everything they do.  But ultimately I didn’t because I couldn’t make blogger meet all of my requirements for migration:

  • Keep all blog posts and comments
  • Keep all posts at their original URLs
  • Maintain all category pages at the same URLs

The first one’s easy.  Google released some migration tools which cover that quite well.  But, at least when importing from typepad / movable type, they don’t preserve permalink URL’s.  So anybody who followed a linked to a specific page on my site would get a 404 page.  Weak.

I spent a lot of time on this.  Basic problem is that Typepad doesn’t include URL information in their export file format. It would be very easy for them to do this, but then why would they want to make it easy for you to leave?  Actually the answer there is easy.  Because by trying to lock in users, they create angry vocal opponents of their service.  I’m not angry, but I would advise against anybody considering Typepad as a blog host, specifically because of their tendency to lock people in.

<rant> Don’t keep my data hostage.  It’s my content.  I created it.  You’re just delivering it.  Do not try to lock me into using you as a service provider.  You might get some more money out of me, but every dollar I give you after I want to leave will contribute to my dis-liking you.  As the internet matures and consumers become more sophisticated and better able to share their experiences with each other, they will increasingly choose the service providers who are open.  (Echoing Jonathan Rosenberg’s recent diatribe on openness.)  I really appreciate Google’s commitment to Data Liberation.  My current provider, Dreamhost, also does a splendid job of giving me control over my data.</rant>

It turns out that getting a full-fidelity export out of typepad is possible with some work.  I followed these instructions from FolioVision which provides a custom export template that does include URL’s.  If your blog has more than 100 posts, then you need to change the first line to

<MTEntries lastn="100">
… run the export, then change the line to
<MTEntries lastn="100" offset="100">
… export again, change it to
<MTEntries lastn="100" offset="200">

etc. and merge all these files together into one big export file that has URL’s.  Then I tried to get blogger to honor the import file with permalinks but I couldn’t.  I do believe blogger is capable of doing this, but what ultimately turned me away from it was that it doesn’t seem to offer any way to honor links like www.embracingchaos.com/humor for category listings.  Which I like and get a lot of visitors on.  So I went with wordpress.

FolioVision helpfully posted a custom wordpress import plugin to match their typepad output template, which makes it all go.  Once that’s done, you have to move all the attachments hosted at typepad, and then there’s a bunch of wordpress configuration, and moving your analytics and favicons and finally switching DNS.

So here we are.  Please tell me if you notice anything amiss with the new site.

Participatory Culture and the Democratization of Information

Posted in Democratization of Information, Music, Social Computing, Television on December 27th, 2009 by leodirac – 1 Comment

An example of the trend towards information democracy is the democratization of culture.  ”Participatory Culture” is the modern trend of many individuals contributing to the mass of popular culture rather than culture being broadcast from a small elite of performers.  By analogy, Hollywood’s hegemony over movies and television represented a communist politburo where a small group had the power and responsibility to control the cultural experiences of the masses.  Today’s information technology is tearing down this monopoly that broadcasters held, and thus democratizing culture through three mechanisms: easier content creation, distribution, and a better editorial process.  We’ll look at each of these three aspects after a brief review of other aspects of the democratization of information.

Broadly, the concept of information democracy is that an increasingly large number of people are able to influence how information is aggregated.  Wikipedia is a clear and simple example of allowing anybody to contribute to what used to be authored by a select few — “The Encyclopedia.”  Google’s Pagerank algorithm democratized web search.  Today’s most successful software is democratizing the feature set by allowing users to vote on how they want to use it.  The general principal is that large numbers of individuals can together make better decisions than any small group.  Applying this principal to culture, we can predict that a cultural democracy will produce “better culture” than what was available before.

Information technology makes it cheaper and easier to both create and to distribute culture.  With the right software, any laptop today has all the power of a professional music or video studio.  Sure the quality won’t be as good without professional inputs (microphones, cameras, etc) but the cheap stuff is good enough for a lot of things.  Obviously the internet makes distribution of this content trivially easy, which is disrupting traditional media businesses.  Easy creation and distribution of cultural content is an important part of creating a cultural democracy, but it is not the critical enabling step.

The key to democratizing culture is in the editorial process.  If everybody is contributing cultural content that is easily distributed, but there’s still a small group deciding which pieces everybody watches, we’re still in a cultural dictatorship.  Enabling the mass public to “vote” on content is the democratizing step.  That enables the collective intelligence of all media consumers to help choose what should become part of mass culture.  So instead of some programming executive trying to guess what will be popular, the question almost becomes moot — whatever is popular becomes popular culture.  Actually making this work is not at all straightforward.  I’ll save a full description of the necessary ingredients for another post, but we can look at a couple examples.

Youtube does this quite well.  It blurs the line between sharing a video clip with your friends and publishing it as a piece of mass culture.  Any video that isn’t marked private is submitted into a kind of massive popularity contest.  Videos that get millions of views are undeniably bits of popular culture.  For music, last.fm does a good job of being inclusive, but hasn’t quite taken off.  When I started building social features into Rhapsody I hoped they could democratize the music editorial process but that hasn’t happened yet.  Like many things in social media there’s a chicken and egg problem with scale which Youtube has clearly gotten past, but music is still struggling with.

Cultural Democracy is “retro”?!

This post is inspired by a recent story by Heather Chaplin that NPR aired describing participatory culture in video games.  The surprising part of the story for me was the assertion that this trend is not modern but in fact “retro.”  The story points out that before analog broadcast media, most culture was participatory — singing, dancing, crafts, etc.  Analog technology created the possibility of cultural hegemonies, and digital technology is breaking them down. A fine point, implying that the 20th century will likely be unique as the only period in human history when popular culture was dictated by an elite group of editors.  Thanks for the interesting tidbit.

2009: A Year of Commitments

Posted in Community, Economics, Ego, Personal Growth on December 17th, 2009 by leodirac – 1 Comment

As the year wraps up, I'd like to share some of the major events that have happened in my life recently.  Many of my readers will be well aware of these events, but I recognize that personal news travels through a variety of channels, and all of those channels are unreliable.  (I'll save the diatribe on why Facebook is a horrible way to keep up with friends for another day.)  For readers who are looking for insightful analysis of technology, my apologies.  Note the "ego" tag.  This is a personal update but does contain a little insight into real-estate finance.

December is often a time of reflection, with good reason.  It's a natural opportunity to consider how things are progressing on a longer time-scale than we often do.  For me, 2009 was a year of making long-term commitments.  I made two huge ones, and I'm extremely happy with both of them.  The process of making these commitments kept me quite busy for almost the entire year.

Most significantly, I married the most amazing woman I know.  Maegan Ashworth and I permanently committed ourselves to each other on September 19th.  Our promises to each other were conversational, humorous, long-winded, personal and deadly serious.  We made them in the most public way we could manage, and were still sad to miss the company of many important people in our lives.  I could fill a book with everything I love about Maegan, but that's even more self-indulgent than I'm willing to be right now.  Suffice to say I am confident this will turn out to be one of the most important positive changes in my life ever.

The real planning for our wedding was compressed into just a couple months because it was difficult to focus on the ceremony while the other major event of the year was uncertain.  But in July we moved into a new house, ending 8 months of ambiguity about where we'd call home.  The process started in November 2008 when we first became interested in the house.  (Just before Maegan and I left for our bicycle tour across Vietnam, where we got engaged.)  It took months to reach agreement with the sellers and then months more to finish the process.  

I went in with a group of friends to buy the house together.  For years we had dreamed of living together in something like an "urban kibbutz".  I've liked that phrase ever since I read it applied to Barack & Michelle's early domestic life.  But for a more complete description of our situation, see our co-habitation blog.  (currently unpublished.  sorry.)

Getting a mortgage was particularly complicated.  The global financial crisis obviously did not help, but our situation was especially difficult.  Living comfortably with lots of good friends requires a big house, which means an expensive house.  In real-estate, expensive is also referred to as "jumbo" meaning that it's too much for any kind of government guarantee.  So banks would either need to make a long-term commitment to us themselves (a so-called "portfolio loan") or re-sell the mortgage to another bank on the secondary market.  We learned that the secondary market was "frozen" to use the popular vernacular, probably at about the same time as one particular bank which had all but committed to giving us a loan.  Another complication was that we needed 3 unrelated applicants to demonstrate our collective ability to pay back the debt, which was unusual enough to make many mid-crisis banks feel extra skittish.  I spent a large part of 2009 working on different aspects of how to finance this house.

Happily the stars aligned one evening when I was walking over to the house of my then-future, now-current roommates.  It was quite common for me at the time to walk those several blocks to sign yet another thick stack of papers to give to some agent or broker or other helpful professional.  Along the way I noticed a four-leafed clover in the grass, and picked it up.  In grade school I spent a surprisingly large amount of my recesses scanning the lawn for these botanical mutants, and once had quite an eye for finding them.  So it wasn't an unusual or significant event for me, but it had been years since I'd found one.  We taped the clover onto the application-du-jour which was going to a small local bank, in an act that signified frustration, exhaustion and powerlessness more than hope.  This bank ended up financing our house.

So that took up most of my year.  Trying to buy a house for about the first half, with moving and settling.  Then a wedding followed by a fabulous honeymoon.

Alarm Clocks, Geeks, Hippies and the Robot Revolution

Posted in Ego, Humor, Transhuman Morality, Transhumanism on May 27th, 2009 by leodirac – 1 Comment

I'm at the Google I/O conference in San Francisco today.  It's wonderful seeing my company doing great things for the world.  Enabling people to build universally accessible applications that help people solve difficult problems together.  It gets us closer to the ultimate solution.

I'm also giving an Ignite talk.  I wanted to make it something of a motivational speech.  Encourage people to think about their own roles in helping bring about the robot revolution.  I also wanted an excuse to share some of my thoughts on how to build an alarm bed.  I'll post my slides after the conference, or at least link to somebody else who does.  But for now, I've got the credits and content licensing posted.

UAW vs. Chrysler: friends at last!

Posted in Economics on May 20th, 2009 by leodirac – 1 Comment

I’d like to share a couple thoughts on Detroit — a couple ideas that
I’m not hearing in the popular or business press, but are important to
understand.

Chrysler goes bankrupt

First some background.  Chrysler is being restructured under
bankruptcy.  This doesn’t mean they’re going out of business.  It means
that they owe more money than they have or will be able to pay.  So
with the help of a judge, they’re sitting down with everybody they owe
money to and telling them frankly “you’re not getting everything we owe
you.  Sorry, but there just isn’t enough to go around.”  So everybody
has to compromise.  The idea is that by striking some bargains to
reduce debt the company can get back in the game and become profitable
again.

UAW owns Chrysler

One of the biggest debts Chrysler has is to the UAW, the United Auto
Workers.  This is the labor union which represents all the
“blue-collar” workers who actually make the cars.  Chrysler owes them
benefits like pensions and health benefits.  Part of the settlement is
that the UAW will own 55% of Chrysler stock.  That’s a majority.  So
the workers will own the company.  Personally I think this is great and
makes a ton of sense, and I’ll tell you why.  But not everybody does.

If you’re lucky enough to be blissfully unaware of labor relations in
Michigan, this is downright bizarre.  Chrylser corporation is
“management.”  UAW is “labor.”  These two groups traditionally have not
gotten along.  I don’t think the word “hate” is out of place.  People
say the UAW will try to unwind this position as fast as they can.  I
heard one “expert” say that the UAW is placed in a position of conflict
of interest representing both Chrysler stockholders and UAW workers.
Why?  Because their responsibility to stockholders is to increase the
value of the company, but their responsibility to the union is to save
jobs, and these two goals are diametrically opposed.

Cooperation is the only way

Hold on.  The goals of the workers and the goals of the company are
diametrically opposed?
This kind of adversarial thinking underlies how
Detroit got into trouble in the first place.  In truth the UAW’s goals
and Chrysler “management” goals are very strongly aligned.  This
painful truth of this fact is excrutiating today.  Chrysler and GM are
on the verge of ceasing to exist.  If and when this happens, the UAW
workers will lose their jobs.  What’s bad for management is bad for
labor.  But figuring out how to keep Chrysler building cars that can
compete with Japan and everybody else is a really hard problem.  Solve
it and both labor and management win.  If ever there was a time for
labor and management to come together and cooperate it’s now.  To be
extremely blunt for those still harboring grudges: if you two don’t
figure out how to play nicely together, you’re both doomed.

Historical tensions caused these problems and SUV’s too

Conventional wisdom cites two reasons for why Detroit is in this mess:

  • They only built big gas-guzzling cars as consumer preferences shifted towards smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles
  • Union labor costs for things like pensions and health care are so
    high compared to foreign competition that the company just can’t compete

I believe both these are true.  But more interestingly (and something
I’ve never heard reported in the press) I believe there’s a causal link
here.  It is precisely because of these high labor costs that Detroit has focused on building gas-guzzlers. Smaller cars are cheaper and are subject to more intense price competition, meaning the margins are lower.  In business school
we learn about two basic types of product strategies: low cost and
high-end.  In the low-cost strategy you try to be more efficient than
your competitors.  You do things cheaper and still maintain a good
enough product.  This is what Japan did with cars.  But because UAW
kept labor costs high, Detroit couldn’t go this direction.  Their small
lower-end cars would just cost more because of the higher input costs.
So they had to go after a high-end strategy where they made bigger,
more expensive vehicles that came with higher profit margins.

Sophie’s Policy Choice

So UAW workers collectively bargained their way out of jobs.  That is,
they bargained up their salaries beyond what their labor is actually
worth in the modern economy.  So what should we do?  Let the market
correct itself so many of them lose their livelihoods?  Or sustain them
publicly somehow?

There is no easy answer to this question from a policy perspective.
China is facing this same question with hundreds of millions of
uneducated peasant farmers.  A relatively modest investment (on the
national scale) in farm machinery could replace a good fraction of
their output.  But the economically efficient choice comes with a high
human cost.  In this country we believe governments exist to serve the
people.  We’ll see how it does.

Some feedback to Financial Reporters

Posted in Economics on March 1st, 2009 by leodirac – Be the first to comment

I’m sure you know the US economy is in recession, which means the total amount of economic activity is declining.  Last week you might have heard the official numbers on how fast it’s declining.  The big story was that the economy is down 6.2%, and everybody agrees that’s a lot.  Most everybody agrees on what it was that shrank — the GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, which is a strictly defined measure that attempts to sum up all economic activity within the country’s borders.  But subtle differences in wording make it really unclear on actually how fast the economy was shrinking.  For example, consider these statements:

  • Gross Domestic Product shrank 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008. [Marketplace] [similar in Reuters]
  • Gross domestic product shrank at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December [Bloomberg]
These statements mean very different things.  If the economy was actually 6.2% smaller at the end of December compared to the beginning of december, that is equivalent to an annual pace 22.6%.  (You might think it’d be 24.8% = 6.2% * 4, but actually it’s 100*(1-(1-6.2/100)^4) — just like compound interest.  If it shrank in half twice, it would be a quarter, not zero.)
So is it 6.2% change in a quarter or a 6.2% annual rate?  Knowing which one is correct requires enough background in the topic at hand to know what’s reasonable.  An annual decline of 22.6% in GDP is unheard of for a first world economy, so they must mean a 6.2% pace.  Fortunately our intuitions work for macroeconomic terms we’re familiar with like US GDP.  But when the same reporters talk about other numbers like housing prices or oil prices or an individual stock, these statements really are ambiguous for most of us.
I’m calling out to all the reporters in the world, especially financial reporters.  When you read a number with the word “rate” or “pace” next to it, and you re-report this number, leave the word “rate” or “pace” on it! Unless you really know what you’re talk about of course, but if you’re not busting out a calculator, you can’t just drop that word and have the right answer.  That word is a unit like miles or kilometers. A 6.2% annual pace means 6.2% change over 12 months, and if you imply that same change happened over a quarter or a month, you’ve made a mistake as bad as changing pounds to ounces.  </rant>
The quotes I chose are from presumably reputable financial news sources.  You don’t have to venture far at all into mainstream media to find these numbers getting butchered.  (See LA TimesHerald.)  The Reuters quote is possibly excusable in that it’s refering to something you presumably already know, rather than reporting the fact directly, which you might claim to be jargon since everybody reading Reuters knows the economy couldn’t shrink 6% in three months.  Marketplace just screwewd up — they were clearly reporting the number as news, and should know better as they try to address a broader audience and educate them about financial issues.  I call them out because I like them, even though they make this mistake a lot.  Maybe they’ll read my feedback on the air.

Dinocams – The legacy of SLR cameras in the 21st century

Posted in Gadgets, Geek, Travel on March 1st, 2009 by leodirac – 6 Comments

DSLR cameras make very little sense today.  Modern imaging technology is rapidly turning them into dinosaurs.  The forces keeping them alive are a combination of a physical legacy in hunks of glass, and aspirational marketing.  I’ll explain, but first, what’s a DSLR and why don’t they make sense?

Background on SLRs and DSLRs

(If you what “f-stop” means, feel free to skip ahead to the next section.)

SLR stands for Single Lens Reflex.  Practically speaking it refers to a camera where you can change the lens.  You look through the same lens that actually takes the picture, letting you put any lens from an ultra-wide angle fisheye to a telescope-length zoom lens.  You can also put filters on the front like star filters or color shifters or polarizers.  Imagine a classic 35mm camera — like what a P.I. would carry to snap pictures of your wife having an affair — that’s an SLR.

SLR’s require a mirror that physically moves to divert the light into one of two places — your eye, or the film / CCD. The mirror was important when the only technology for capturing images was chemical film.  But nowadays we have various electronic devices like CCDs that digitize an image.  DSLR cameras use a CCD to get many of the benefits of digital imaging, but still have the same physical form factor as an old chemical-film SLR.  They can use the old lenses, which is one of their big appeals.  But so many things about these cameras just don’t make sense.

The problems with DSLR cameras

First there’s the noise. The sound of the mirror slapping against its stops as it switches positions is very recognizable. We used to accept sounds like that as a necessary part of taking
pictures.  Today it just annoys me.  Especially when I’m at a small
event and some photographer is there making loud clicking noises all
the time while I’m trying to enjoy whatever it is they’re digitizing
with their dinocam.  In 99% of all use cases, it’s totally unnecessary.  CCDs can continuously capture images and display them on a screen, creating a digital light path that doesn’t require loud expensive mechanical assemblies.  These displays aren’t as good as what a human eye can pick out, so this doesn’t work all the time.  But if you don’t need interchangeable lenses, then the camera can have a second optical path just for the eye, which doesn’t need to be as good.

One argument against a separate optical viewfinder is that youc can’t put filters in front of the lens.  This is very true, but filters are also obsolete.  With few exceptions, everything that a physical filter does can be done later in photoshop with more control and accuracy.  Color tinting, sparkle, gradients, soft, mist, etc — these all used to be rendered in physical glass out of necessity.  Polarizing filters are probably the most important exception to this — since CCD’s don’t record a light’s polarization state, it can’t be adjusted later.  But for the most part, filters aren’t necessary anymore, meaning you don’t need the whole single-lens thing.

But what about interchangeable lenses?  Isn’t it useful to have the same camera body and be able to change lenses?  (I hear you cry.)  Yes, sorta.  There are definitely situations where one lens won’t be able to do everything you want.  But those situations are getting rarer and rarer.  And in the few exception cases, I’ll argue that interchangeable lenses aren’t the right solution.  The reason these cases are getting less and less common is that zoom lenses are getting better.  When SLR cameras first came on the scene zoom lenses basically didn’t exist because they sucked when they did.  You needed a different lens for each amount of magnification you wanted, so people had lots of lenses.  But with computers to help us design the lenses, and vastly improved manufacturing processes, zoom lenses are getting better all the time.  Nowadays a lens with a huge 10x zoom can even win accolades from camera snobs.  And lenses as versatile as 26x cover every situation most of us would ever want, and at a quality we’ll be thrilled with.  So for almost all situations, a single zoom lens is good enough today.

What about the situations where that’s not quite good enough?  Where you need that 14mm fisheye that captures people standing immediately to the left or right side of the lens?  Or that 8000mm super- long telephoto telescope?  It turns out in either of these challenging cases, getting the lens to fit the standard SLR form factor becomes the hardest part.

Why SLR’s cripple even the extreme lens cases

With ultra-wide fisheye lenses, the problem is the space reserved for that stupid mirror.  In this case, the focal length is very short, so as a
lens designer, you’d naturally want the focal plane to be very close to
the glass.  (Like about 14mm.)  But the place where the lens attaches to the camera body necessarily needs to be a certain distance away from the imaging plane.  That distance was determined by the size of the mirror, which was determined by the size of your chemical film — 35mm, which is more than you’d really want for a 14mm lens.  Even on today’s 2009 DSLR cameras, that distance is exactly the same as it was a generation ago in order to ensure backwards compatibility with old lenses.  The literal tons of carefully polished glass represent a very real barrier to improvement since people have invested lots of money in them.

So if you really want a camera that’s good at taking super-wide angle pictures, you don’t want your lens to have to be that far away from the imaging plane.  You’re better off with a specially built camera.  The lens will be simpler, cheaper and higher quality.  But super-wide starts to look funny, no matter what.  Funny meaning
distorted, because if your eye is more than a couple of inches away
from the reproduced super-wide image, then it won’t look right.  And it’s not super useful to capture 360 degrees in one shot — you can shoot a dozen pictures and stitch them together later in software, and it’ll look more natural.  This is all why people don’t pay a lot of attention to how super-wide lenses get anymore.

On the super-telephoto side of things, the SLR legacy is even worse.  To get a super-long telephoto lens you need lots of big glass.  This gets expensive quickly simply because it’s a large mass of carefully manufactured stuff.  The amount of glass you need for a lens is proportional to the cube of the length of your imaging plane, which for legacy chemical-film is 35mm. But CCD’s just don’t need to be that big.  On almost every DSLR they’re only about 20mm across, and on high-quality non-SLR cameras are as typically about 6mm across.  So that size legacy means you would need literally 200x  the almost 40x the amount of physical glass to make a good telephoto lens for an SLR vs a non-SLR camera.  This ridiculous discrepency is just going to get worse.

CCD’s are silicon devices, so they share manufacturing improves along with CPU’s and follows a Moore’s law-like improvement curve for performance.  A key way they improve is in pixel density, but also by simply getting smaller.  As they get smaller, high-quality zoom lenses get smaller and cheaper too.  But only if the lenses are specifically designed for the new smaller CCD’s.  With an SLR system they can’t be — the size must be fixed in order to maintain backwards compatibility.  So while sensor technology improves at Moore’s law speed, lenses for non-SLR cameras improve as well, but SLR lenses do not.  Expensive zoom lenses for modern cameras just don’t need to be that big or expensive — It’s like having to build a cell-phone big enough to hold floppy disks.

To illustrate this point, consider the popular Canon SX10IS camera which does not feature interchangeable lenses.  It features a zoom lens that goes from pretty wide (28mm equivalent) to really very far zoom (560mm equivalent).  Because its CCD is only 6mm across, it can do all this for under $400 and weigh in under a pound for the whole camera.  For comparison, a comparable SLR lens weighs in at over 11lbs and costs upwards of $7,000, just for the lens.  No doubt this lens can take better pictures than the tiny Canon, but a smaller lens built for a modern CCD could take pictures that are every bit as good for a fraction the price.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the noise floor on these sensors.  When the scene is dark, you need more light to get a good image.  A bigger hunk of glass captures more light.  This all makes intuitive sense and is mostly accurate.  CCD sensors can take more accurate pictures in low light when they are bigger.  But the limits here are electronic noise, which is also improving.  At some point we’ll hit some other barrier like the thermal noise in the sensor, although a piezo cooler could work around that.  Ultimately there’s the the quantization of photons, but if you’re taking pictures in a scene that dark, you probably can’t see what you’re pointing at anyway.  My point is that while there are advantages in low light for larger glass and sensors, technology is erroding away at those too.  We’re seeing ISO equivalents of 6400 as fairly common in cameras these days, with an economic competitive pressure to improve that.

In summary, the problems with the SLR format are that it ties its owner to a physical legacy that denies them the advantages of advancing technology.  There are cases where specialized lenses are still important.  But those cases are dwindling.  Personally, I’m going to be happier carrying around a full featured small camera that can transform itself into whatever I want without needing interchangable parts than a bag full of bits that were standardized before email.