Embracing Chaos

I recently picked up a book called Secrets of Mental Math written by one of my college math professors.  It has very practical advice on how to learn to multiply large numbers in your head.  He gives practical advice on necessary skills like addition, subtraction, and related mathematical trivia.  To practice multiplying numbers in your head, I’ve created a fast, simple javascript tool which you can access from your phone at http://leodirac.com/mathquiz .

The author of the book is Arthur Benjamin.  He gave a demonstration of his mad skillz at TED a while back, which I’m embedding here because it’s awesome.

Migrating this blog has been fun because it’s forced me to look over a lot of the old content I’ve written.  A couple years ago I found Benjamin’s Ted talk, which has inspired all this craziness.  I think it’s good to keep the brain fresh by taxing skills that one might not have used in a while.

Back in 2007, I predicted that Apple would launch a subscription music service probably around 2010. My logic was based on how long it would take to get enough connected iPods into the world. Having spent a bunch of time with an unconnected mp3 player with a subscription music service I knew this was necessary. I had been using a Sansa mp3 player, which was playing content from Rhapsody’s subscription service. The device was designed to essentially brick itself every 30 days unless you plugged it into a PC. This was necessary to ensure that you were still paying for the music that it had stored, since it couldn’t connect itself. The experience sucked.  Jobs would never let this fly. But now there’s a whole slew of media devices (iPhones, iPod touches, and the new slate) which have their own connection to the outside world and wouldn’t need to be plugged in every month to verify that you’ve paid up.

iSlate is rumored to have a bunch of new content associated with it.  Particularly print content.  Print publishers will probably want consumers to sign up for subscriptions.  So Apple’s probably going to be introducing people to the concept of content subscriptions on their portable devices, likely with iPhone OS 4.0 which probably will run the iSlate and old iPhones and iPod touches too.  So I wouldn’t be surprised if you can get an all-you-can-eat music subscription service available too.  We’ll see.  It’s pure speculation, but it would make sense.  I’d be particularly tickled if my off-the-cuff prediction of dates from 2007 turned out to be right.

There’s lots of hubbub about Apple’s upcoming tablet device, but the stuff people are talking about I’m not actually all that excited about.  A giant iPhone?  Sure, that’ll be nice.  A color e-reader that can run apps.  Okay, I guess that’s better than kindle.  A super-thin netbook without a real keyboard.  Meh.  Actually, I don’t know that I’d want one at all.  Unless…

Unless Apple has come up with a better way to do soft keyboards, that is.  When I say “soft keyboard” I mean the kind of keyboard that appears on a touch screen and has no physical keys.  I’ve complained about the iPhone’s keyboard for a while.  While it’s true that people do get better at using these, I still don’t think I’ll ever be nearly as fast or accurate (even with smart correction) with a soft keyboard as I was with my blackberry.  I think that’s probably true on average for most people.  The basic reason is the lack of tactile feedback.  With a physical keyboard, if my fingers are slightly off target, they are guided to the right place by feel.

I’ve argued for some time now that the way to solve this is by figuring out how to make a touch-screen display with tactile feedback.  How would such a device work?  Physically I couldn’t tell you.  But what we’d need would be a way to electronically manipulate texture in a clear material.  A plastic with a matrix of cells that could expand or contract under electronic control.  So the software could create bumps where each of the keys are.  This would allow a software-reconfigurable gadget that could be almost as usable as a dedicated-purpose device.

This is very different from what is commonly referred to as “haptic feedback” on some of today’s gadgets like the Nexus One.  Here, the phone’s vibrator pulses a bit when you press a soft key.  This is a kind of feedback which is tactile in that you feel it, and it gives you information about your interaction with the device without having to look at the screen.  It certainly helps.  But it is not going to improve basic typing for a critical reason — it can’t help guide fingers to the right place.  The basic act of positioning fingers on controls is still basically open loop, feed forward, without guidance.  What I’m referring to as tactile feedback helps the fingers find the right spots to press without looking.  Today’s haptic feedback can’t do that.

To be clear, true tactile feedback like this almost certainly doesn’t exist yet.  This kind of pure technological innovation basically always starts in universities or government run labs.  The ROI on pure research into unproven technology is so low that it doesn’t make sense for companies to invest there.  Even if a company proved this was possible (which AFAIK hasn’t been done yet) they’d need to figure out how to manufacture it at scale before they could sell a device with it.  Last time I predicted it would be about 2012 before we saw these.  Even though Jobs almost certainly foresees the value of such a system, Apple’s expertise is not in material science.  Wired speculated about such a keyboard based on Apple’s patent filings, but what they describe seems a bit too sci-fi for me to believe.

If they have come up with something new and cool, it’s going to be a smarter way to use basically existing hardware.  I’m gonna guess it’s probably something like a touch screen which is pressure sensitive, so you can rest your fingers on it without indicating a “button press”, making typing more natural.  You could combine this with fixed, transparent dimples on the screen under the positions where the keys are, and you’d do pretty well.  Restrict the keyboard to only work in landscape mode and you only need one set of dimples.  This would be a huge improvement in usability and the biggest technological breakthrough would be the ability to distinguish a soft push from a hard push on a capacitive touch-screen.  Like by how much surface of your finger is on it.

Regardless of what Apple’s actually managed to achieve, I wish them the best.  They’re really pushing the envelope on human-computer interactions.  If they’ve done anything significant to improve soft keyboards, they will have once again done something that the entire rest of the industry will want to emulate, and I’ll tip my hat to them.

It took a long time, but EmbracingChaos has finally escaped form Typepad.  About a year ago (just before the end of the previous billing cycle) I started trying to move this blog to blogger.  I like Google’s pace of development and wanted to hop on the blogger train and get automatic upgrades for everything they do.  But ultimately I didn’t because I couldn’t make blogger meet all of my requirements for migration:

• Keep all blog posts and comments
• Keep all posts at their original URLs
• Maintain all category pages at the same URLs

The first one’s easy.  Google released some migration tools which cover that quite well.  But, at least when importing from typepad / movable type, they don’t preserve permalink URL’s.  So anybody who followed a linked to a specific page on my site would get a 404 page.  Weak.

I spent a lot of time on this.  Basic problem is that Typepad doesn’t include URL information in their export file format. It would be very easy for them to do this, but then why would they want to make it easy for you to leave?  Actually the answer there is easy.  Because by trying to lock in users, they create angry vocal opponents of their service.  I’m not angry, but I would advise against anybody considering Typepad as a blog host, specifically because of their tendency to lock people in.

<rant> Don’t keep my data hostage.  It’s my content.  I created it.  You’re just delivering it.  Do not try to lock me into using you as a service provider.  You might get some more money out of me, but every dollar I give you after I want to leave will contribute to my dis-liking you.  As the internet matures and consumers become more sophisticated and better able to share their experiences with each other, they will increasingly choose the service providers who are open.  (Echoing Jonathan Rosenberg’s recent diatribe on openness.)  I really appreciate Google’s commitment to Data Liberation.  My current provider, Dreamhost, also does a splendid job of giving me control over my data.</rant>

It turns out that getting a full-fidelity export out of typepad is possible with some work.  I followed these instructions from FolioVision which provides a custom export template that does include URL’s.  If your blog has more than 100 posts, then you need to change the first line to

<MTEntries lastn="100">

<MTEntries lastn="100" offset="100">

<MTEntries lastn="100" offset="200">

etc. and merge all these files together into one big export file that has URL’s.  Then I tried to get blogger to honor the import file with permalinks but I couldn’t.  I do believe blogger is capable of doing this, but what ultimately turned me away from it was that it doesn’t seem to offer any way to honor links like www.embracingchaos.com/humor for category listings.  Which I like and get a lot of visitors on.  So I went with wordpress.

FolioVision helpfully posted a custom wordpress import plugin to match their typepad output template, which makes it all go.  Once that’s done, you have to move all the attachments hosted at typepad, and then there’s a bunch of wordpress configuration, and moving your analytics and favicons and finally switching DNS.

So here we are.  Please tell me if you notice anything amiss with the new site.