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	<title>Embracing Chaos &#187; Societal Values</title>
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	<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com</link>
	<description>Leo Parker Dirac on Business and Technology Trends</description>
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		<title>How Social Media will change Marketing</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2010/05/how-social-media-will-change-marketing.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2010/05/how-social-media-will-change-marketing.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 May 2010 23:54:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marketing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal Growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.embracingchaos.com/?p=1012</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A number of years ago, a bunch of my friends were reading Naomi Klein&#8217;s book No Logo and getting really riled up by it.  The book is certainly written to make you angry, describing how brands and logos have become more and more prominent in our society as the marketing industry has become more sophisticated at [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A number of years ago, a bunch of my friends were reading Naomi Klein&#8217;s book <em><a id="akh1" title="No Logo" href="http://www.amazon.com/No-Logo-Ranting-About-Brand-Bullies/dp/0312203438">No Logo</a></em> and getting really riled up by it.  The book is certainly written to make you angry, describing how brands and logos have become more and more prominent in our society as the marketing industry has become more sophisticated at delivering their messages.  When I read it, I had a very different reaction.  I found it to be a fascinating history of marketing.  Klein gives examples of how advertising of the past was very simple &#8212; think back to classic TV ads which amounted to a person standing in front of a camera saying little more than &#8220;Buy this dogfood.  It will feed your dog.&#8221;  When television was young, these ads worked.  But as people got used to it, they learned to tune these simple messages out.  What has followed has been <strong>a steady co-evolution of new marketing techniques and people learning to understand them and be less swayed by them</strong>.  If you&#8217;re old enough, you&#8217;ll remember that first <a id="tswo" title="Diet Pepsi commercial that ran before Top Gun" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBQnS9UCq0k&amp;feature=PlayList&amp;p=86BB9E8E83C34C35&amp;playnext_from=PL&amp;playnext=1&amp;index=29">Diet Pepsi commercial that ran before Top Gun</a> in theaters.  Remember how odd it was to see a commercial in movie theaters?  Or consider the evolution of product placement within movies &#8212; how actors used to turn their heads and unnaturally hold their beverage so the entire logo was clearly visible on the side of the bottle.  Now it&#8217;s much more common to just see a part of a logo &#8212; enough to be recognized and enter the subconscious, thus bypassing the conscious filters which weed out blatant product placement.  Klein presents this history, punctuated with outbursts of &#8220;we&#8217;re not going to put up with this any more!&#8221;</p>
<p>Simultaneously, <strong>technological advances have allowed advertising</strong> to progress along a different axis &#8211; <strong>to become more targeted</strong>.  Advertising used to only be broadcast widely through newspapers and television shows.  The best an advertiser could do to ensure their message reached the right kind of people was to select the aggregate demographics of everybody who read a particular magazine.  Now the internet allows ads to be targeted as precisely as you&#8217;d like.  Today, Google lets you get your message only in front of people who are about to buy a product like yours.  The ability to connect to people who have expressed an intention to &#8220;buy digital camera&#8221; is a <a href="http://xkcd.com/725/">literal</a> gold-mine, making billionaires out of Larry, Sergey and Eric.  As effective as it is, targeted advertising won&#8217;t replace broadcast advertising, because there is still value in abstract brand-building.  Rather, the two will complement each other.</p>
<h4>Enter Social Media</h4>
<p>Social media has been <a id="ay55" title="all the buzz" href="http://www.google.com/trends?q=social+media">all the buzz</a> recently.  At its core it&#8217;s just a more convenient way for friends to communicate.  The &#8220;killer app&#8221; for computers has always been helping people communicate, and this is just another chapter in that book.  With this new communications medium comes a new opportunity for organizations to tell their stories.  In fact, I believe that <strong>social media will bring another tectonic shift in the entire marketing industry, possibly as important as search-based advertising</strong>.  As consumers have gotten more and more sophisticated at filtering out advertising from broadcast media, advertisers have gotten more and more desperate in their attempts to connect with people.  Social media marketing offers a new path &#8211; <strong>instead of hearing about products and services through ads, people can hear about products and services from their own friends</strong>.  Exactly how this will play out through Twitter/Facebook/Foursquare/whatever is not at all clear to me right now, but I fundamentally believe this change is coming, and it will take the entire marketing industry with it.  Klein and her fans are free to unplug from popular culture in order to avoid the onslaught of brand advertising, but they would be foolish to stop talking to their friends just because their friends are happy with things they&#8217;ve bought.</p>
<p>This vision is one of the main things that prompted me to jump off the comfy Google cruise liner and start paddling hard in <a id="n1w7" title="Banyan Branch" href="http://www.banyanbranch.com/">Banyan Branch</a>&#8217;s crowded dinghy.</p>
<h4>Is marketing intrinsically evil?</h4>
<p>I sometimes feel a need to justify this line of work to those who think that marketing is inherently dirty.  I admit that I&#8217;m more of a capitalist than many of my friends, but I certainly recognize that capitalism has its limits.  The vast majority of economic transactions are both consensual and mutually beneficial, and I will argue vigorously that there is nothing wrong with an economic system consisting of these transactions.  The biggest exception to this happens when transactions are not mutually beneficial because one party is not fully informed.  But what we&#8217;re doing is helping people share honest opinions and feedback about the things they buy and use.  By lubricating the flow of information between real people, I believe <strong>social media will reduce the effectiveness of deceptive marketing</strong>.  Moreover, it will help companies connect to their customers and hone their goods to people&#8217;s real concerns and desires.  It will help hold companies accountable for their mistakes, <strong>and enable companies to better make things that make people happy</strong>.</p>
<p>Additionally, I will point out that my employer represents no small amount of &#8220;pure good&#8221; for the world, including organizations such as <a id="uru5" title="The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation" href="http://www.gatesfoundation.org/">The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation</a> and <a id="mx.d" title="Vittana" href="http://www.vittana.org/">Vittana</a>, helping them tell their stories.</p>
<h4>Taking a chance on a startup</h4>
<p>Why did I choose this opportunity out of the sea of possibilities?  I evaluated the landscape as an investor would, since I am investing no small chunk of my life in this effort.  From my <a id="up6d" title="entrepreneurial training" href="http://foster.washington.edu/">entrepreneurial training</a> and experience, I know that smart investors care more about the people than the specific business plan.  The plan will almost certainly change, but the key management will not.  Having known one of the founders of Banyan quite well for a number of years, I am certain that many key elements for success are in place.  The corporate culture and governance will be solid.  I will be working in an environment where I am supported, and where I can learn and grow as a manager and a technologist.</p>
<p>Exactly what will I be doing or building?  I admit I&#8217;m not sure yet, but I have some very interesting ideas that I won&#8217;t be sharing here anytime soon.  I am sure that my work is very well positioned to be a part of a major shift in an entire industry &#8212; a rare opportunity.  Whether or not my work will play a key role in this shift is somewhat out of my hands &#8212; these things are always a roll of the dice.  But in another sense, it&#8217;s entirely within my control, and this is what I love about working in a small company.  There&#8217;s almost nothing but work between me and effective execution of our ideas.  Many people tend to exaggerate the importance of the idea itself, forgetting that <strong>it is incredibly important to execute well on whatever ideas you have</strong>.  I&#8217;ve heard people say that they had the idea for YouTube years before YouTube did.  How quickly we forget the dozens of other companies all working on the same problem in 2006, which almost all fell by the wayside because they didn&#8217;t execute as well as YouTube did.  Ideas matter for sure.  But hard work is critical.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;d like to jump on this raft and start paddling too, <a id="xgmn" title="get in touch with me" href="http://leodirac.com/contact/">get in touch with me</a>.  I need a few key rock-star developers who are&#8217;t scared of chaos and can think creatively about business problems.</p>
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		<title>Why Republicans are better at staying on message</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2010/04/why-republicans-are-better-at-staying-on-message.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2010/04/why-republicans-are-better-at-staying-on-message.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Apr 2010 15:38:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.embracingchaos.com/?p=729</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The dating site OkCupid has some brilliant mathematicians behind it.  They get you to answer all sorts of questions about your personal preferences to various situations or ideas, and then run mad statistics to figure out who would be good romantic partners for you.  It&#8217;s surprisingly effective.  I never had any good dates out of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/2010/03/30/the-democrats-are-doomed-or-how-a-big-tent-can-be-too-big/"><img class="top" src="http://cdn.okcimg.com/blog/democrats/Convex-Hull.png" alt="" width="250" height="250" /></a>The dating site <a href="http://www.okcupid.com/">OkCupid</a> has some brilliant mathematicians behind it.  They get you to answer all sorts of questions about your personal preferences to various situations or ideas, and then run mad statistics to figure out who would be good romantic partners for you.  It&#8217;s surprisingly effective.  I never had any good dates out of it, not that I tried many.  But it did an amazing job of recommending to me people who were close in my social circle, even though we had each entered the site anonymously.</p>
<p>In the course of learning about people&#8217;s personalities for helping them get dates, they also gather deep demographic data.  Recently they <a href="http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/2010/03/30/the-democrats-are-doomed-or-how-a-big-tent-can-be-too-big/">analyzed these data with respect to politics</a>.  They show a series of graphs that would make Edward Tufte proud, analyzing people&#8217;s preferences along the political plane defined by permissiveness vs government control over economic and social issues.  They look at how these preferences change with age, and how relatively important each axis is.  Their conclusions match exit poll data quite nicely and demonstrate analytically that the Republican party is much more focused in the issues it cares about, while the Democratic party draws in people whose opinions are much more diverse.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a long article, but I heartily encourage you to <a href="http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/2010/03/30/the-democrats-are-doomed-or-how-a-big-tent-can-be-too-big/">read it</a>, or at least skim the diagrams and play with the animation on the 6th chart.  Nice analysis.  Very nice presentation.  Nice job, folks.</p>
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		<title>Clean Water For Kenya</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2010/04/clean-water-for-kenya.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2010/04/clean-water-for-kenya.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Apr 2010 15:23:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Philanthropy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travel]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.embracingchaos.com/?p=723</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My business school buddy Jeremy Farkas is heading off to Kenya soon.  He says:
I’ll be developing marketing and distribution programs to broaden access to clean water for families living on as little as a few dollars a day.   Every year over 1.6 million people, largely children under the age of 5, die  of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="top" src="http://maps.google.com/maps/api/staticmap?center=Kenya&amp;zoom=4&amp;size=320x240&amp;maptype=roadmap&amp;sensor=false" alt="" />My <a href="http://foster.washington.edu/">business school</a> buddy Jeremy Farkas is heading off to Kenya soon.  He says:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">I’ll be developing marketing and distribution programs to broaden access to clean water for families living on as little as a few dollars a day.   Every year over 1.6 million people, largely children under the age of 5, die  of diseases caused by unclean water and poor sanitation.</p>
<p>I really admire Jeremy for his can-do attitude, working on very important problems that are not at all close to home.  I invite all of you to follow along on his blog <a href="http://cleanwaterforall.net/">Clean Water For All</a> and if you feel so moved to help them out.</p>
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		<title>Externalities of the Columbian Hostage Rescue</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2008/07/externalities-o.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2008/07/externalities-o.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Jul 2008 22:19:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wp.embracingchaos.com/2008/07/externalities-o.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This last week there was a lot of news coverage of a "daring hostage rescue in Columbia." Fifteen people were freed from the FARC. Many had been held captive for years, including politician Ingrid Betancourt, and three Americans. The press has been celebrating the victory along several lines. How wonderful it is for these people to be set free after years of captivity. How the US military helped plan and support the operation. How the guerrillas were fooled into giving the hostages up without firing a single shot. (Aren't we smart! Aren't they stuipd?) But there's a dark side to...
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.embracingchaos.com/pix/white-helicopter.png" class="top" />This last week there was a lot of news coverage of a &quot;<strong>daring hostage rescue in Columbia</strong>.&quot;&nbsp; Fifteen people were freed from the FARC.&nbsp; Many had been held captive for years, including politician Ingrid Betancourt, and three Americans.&nbsp; The press has been celebrating the victory along several lines.&nbsp; How wonderful it is for these people to be set free after years of captivity.&nbsp; How the US military helped plan and support the operation.&nbsp; How the guerrillas were fooled into giving the hostages up without firing a single shot.&nbsp; (Aren&#8217;t we smart!&nbsp; Aren&#8217;t they stuipd?)</p>
<p>But there&#8217;s <strong>a dark side to this rescue</strong> that I haven&#8217;t seen anybody discuss.&nbsp; The reason the guerrillas allowed those hostages to get on that helicopter without firing a shot because they thought it was operated by a humanitarian group.&nbsp; It&#8217;s true that the operation relied on intercepted communications and a spy in the FARC&#8217;s command structure.&nbsp; But the operation relied on a having military helicopter painted white and its crew claiming to be apolitical.&nbsp; The press even describes the acting lessons the soldiers took to pretend to be NGO workers.&nbsp; Oh those foolish rebels who fell for such a simple trick by trusting aid workers.&nbsp; What dupes!</p>
<p>Now look at this from another angle.&nbsp; Imagine you really are an NGO worker, trying to provide some kind of support service to remote Columbia.&nbsp; How does knowledge of an operation like this make you feel?&nbsp; Scared, probably.&nbsp; From now on, rebels are going to doubt the legitimacy of all NGO workers.&nbsp; They might think you&#8217;re in the Columbian military trying to take advantage of them again.&nbsp; They might even start shooting down Red Cross helicopters.&nbsp; The negative externality of this rescue is that <strong>all legitimate humanitarian work in the area has just gotten a lot more difficult and dangerous.</strong></p>
<p>So as Santos brags that this rescue &quot;will go down in history for its audaciousness and effectiveness&quot; he ignores the fact that he just cashed in a bunch of good will to make this happen.&nbsp; This stuff doesn&#8217;t grow easily like coca plants.&nbsp; I&#8217;m glad those people have their lives back, but I am in no way convinced it was worth the sacrifice.&nbsp; What&#8217;s going to happen next time there&#8217;s a public health crisis in the area?&nbsp; The moral calculus is undoubtedly complex.&nbsp; But ask yourself, would you trade the freedom of a dozen captives (including three Americans) for risking the well-being of many thousands of needy individuals?&nbsp; How about for the lives of a half dozen International Red Cross workers murdered by suspicious rebels?</p>
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		<title>Diesel car options in the US: there aren&#8217;t many</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2007/12/diesel-us-cars.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2007/12/diesel-us-cars.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Dec 2007 06:04:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wp.embracingchaos.com/2007/12/diesel-us-cars.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My 14-year old Subaru is on its way out, and since I'm commuting to Kirkland almost every day I really need a new car. Primary criteria for me are safety and fuel economy / ecological impact. Safety seems to correlate very strongly with model year so I'm looking at new cars. In theory running on bio-diesel gives your car essentially zero net carbon impact. Also, many new renewable organic fuel sources seem to be more like diesel than gasoline. So I looked at what diesel cars can be purchased new in the US these days. I was amazed at how...
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/robertcandelori/19070011/"><img width="240" src="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/12/19070011_4c17f5eb1b_m_d.jpg" class="top" /></a>My 14-year old Subaru is on its way out, and since I&#8217;m commuting to Kirkland almost every day I really need a new car.&nbsp; Primary criteria for me are safety and fuel economy / ecological impact.&nbsp; Safety seems to correlate very strongly with model year so I&#8217;m looking at new cars.&nbsp; In theory running on bio-diesel gives your car essentially zero net carbon impact.&nbsp; Also, many new renewable organic fuel sources seem to be more like diesel than gasoline.&nbsp; So I looked at what diesel cars can be purchased new in the US these days.&nbsp; I was amazed at how slim the choices are.&nbsp; <strong>If you want a new diesel vehicle in this country, here are your choices&#8230;</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Pickup trucks &#8212; many models, small and large</li>
<li>Full-sized vans &#8212; think church-group van or delivery van, not soccer-mom minivan</li>
<li>Mercedes &#8212; 3 models: E-class sedans, R-class station wagons, and GL-class or M-class SUVs.&nbsp; All $45k+</li>
<li>Volkswagen Taureg 2 &#8212; VW&#8217;s SUV has a diesel option starting at $68k</li>
<li>Jeep Grand Cherokee &#8212; starting at $37k for diesel</li>
</ul>
<p>Color me underwhelmed.&nbsp; I might have missed something, but as far as I can tell <strong>there is exactly one non-SUV non-pickup diesel car on the market in this country: the Mercedes E-class</strong>.&nbsp; Yowza.&nbsp; &nbsp;Seriously, what gives?</p>
<p><strong>In Europe</strong>, diesel cars are totally common-place.&nbsp; While here we&#8217;re all abuzz about our fancy hybrids that can get 40+ mpg, Europeans can choose cars like the <a href="http://www.citroen.com/CWW/en-US/RANGE/PrivateCars/C4_5p/default/">Citroen C4</a> which gets <del>46</del> 38 mpg city and <del>71</del><strong> 59 mpg on the highway!</strong>&nbsp; <em>[Correction: These are per imperial gallon, which are 1.2 US gallons.]</em>&nbsp; I drove a Citroen (might even have been a C4) from Paris to Tuscany and back a couple of summers ago.&nbsp; Let me assure you these are not stereotypically crappy French-engineered clunkers, but actually pretty nice cars, and not old-world tiny either.&nbsp; </p>
<p>That number bears repeating.&nbsp; <del>71</del> 59 miles per gallon on the highway.&nbsp; When is this country going to get it together and raise the CAFE standards in a meaningful way and not just for show?&nbsp; It&#8217;s for everybody&#8217;s good.</p>
<p><em><span style="font-size: 0.8em;">[Photo courtesy of </span><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/robertcandelori/"><span style="font-size: 0.8em;">Robert Candelori</span></a></em><em><span style="font-size: 0.8em;">]</span></em></p>
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		<title>A Tough Engineering Decision</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2007/05/a_tough_enginee.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2007/05/a_tough_enginee.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 May 2007 14:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Databases]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ego]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Software Engineering]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wp.embracingchaos.com/2007/05/a_tough_enginee.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here's the scene: It's 1:30 PM. In 30 minutes the CEO of your company starts a conference call with analysts to announce quarterly earnings. PR told you he is going to tell the Wall Street analysts how cool your team's website is. It is quite a success -- in 18 months it has rocketed from non-existence to the world's fourth most popular site in a very competitive industry. Sounds great to get some recognition, right? Only problem is, today your site's kinda broken. The night before a database upgrade got confused half-way through with no possibility to roll back. One...
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s the scene: It&#8217;s 1:30 PM.&nbsp; <strong>In 30 minutes the CEO of your company</strong> starts a conference call with analysts to announce quarterly earnings.&nbsp; PR told you he<strong> is going to tell the Wall Street analysts how cool your team&#8217;s website is.</strong>&nbsp; It is quite a success &#8212; in 18 months it has rocketed from non-existence to the world&#8217;s fourth most popular site in a very competitive industry.&nbsp; Sounds great to get some recognition, right?&nbsp; Only problem is, today <span style="font-weight: bold;">your</span><strong> site&#8217;s </strong><strong>kinda broken</strong>.</p>
<p>The night before a database upgrade got confused half-way through with no possibility to roll back.&nbsp; One of the two production databases got upgraded to the new schema and the other didn&#8217;t.&nbsp; As you&#8217;d spent most of the day diagnosing, the new schema didn&#8217;t <em>quite</em> work with your app &#8212; some fraction of pages generated from this database came out wrong.&nbsp; Busted.&nbsp; Missing.&nbsp; Scrambled.&nbsp; Paper white.&nbsp; Ugh.</p>
<p>After hours of group futzing between you and a couple dozen other folks, you&#8217;ve managed to get the problem mitigated.&nbsp; Your app now appears to be reliably generating correct non-borked pages.&nbsp; But the site that the world sees is still messed up, because of your content distribution network (CDN) partner.&nbsp; The CDN caches copies of your site across the world, moving it closer to customers for faster display and reducing the load on your own app servers.&nbsp; But over the course of the day, the CDN has cached copies of many broken pages.&nbsp; You can of course clear the individual cache for any broken page you find, causing the CDN to fetch a clean accurate copy from your app servers.&nbsp; But the site has millions of pages &#8212; how are you ever going to find all the pages that need flushing?&nbsp; With 30 minutes until press time it&#8217;s not impossible.&nbsp; </p>
<p>The only reliable way to clear all the broken pages out of the cache is to wipe clean the whole CDN cache.&nbsp; Push the big reset button.&nbsp; This is a fairly big deal because it means millions of cached pages will have to be wiped from the CDN and fetched from the app servers again.&nbsp; Is there time before the peering eyes of Wall Street come looking?&nbsp; Clearing the caches takes about 15 minutes.&nbsp; Filling them back up again &#8212; who knows.&nbsp; The popular stuff will fill in fast, but the long tail will probably take a while. </p>
<p>To make it worse, clearing those caches will mean a big increase in traffic to the app servers.&nbsp; You&#8217;ve hit the button before during code releases.&nbsp; But always very late at night when traffic is light.&nbsp; Early afternoon is about as high as traffic gets.&nbsp; These systems are not the most stable in the world right now &#8212; you&#8217;re not sure if they&#8217;ll survive a cache clear in the middle of the afternoon.&nbsp; Any web site will slow down with lots of traffic.&nbsp; But too much traffic and these systems crash.&nbsp; Break.&nbsp; Stop working at all.&nbsp; And often won&#8217;t get back up without a lot of help.&nbsp; Sometimes such crashes will ripple back through dependent systems and it takes hours to figure out what&#8217;s happened.&nbsp; Maybe even take the whole company off-line for a while, and that&#8217;s always fun to explain to the execs afterwards. </p>
<p>This is the risk of hitting the big button and clearing the caches.&nbsp; Best case is the site runs slowly for a while as the caches repopulate.&nbsp; Worst case, the whole system goes completely south while the analysts are checking it out.&nbsp; Alternately you could just leave the site in its somewhat-broken but mostly working state for the analysts to look at.</p>
<p>So, <strong>what do you do?</strong></p>
<p>A friend from college pointed out to me that <strong>engineers </strong><strong>get paid for their judgment</strong>.&nbsp; Doing rote calculations doesn&#8217;t demand a high salary.&nbsp; Using your experience and opinion to weigh alternatives does.&nbsp; Considering the relative merits of trade-offs, especially when the stakes are high &#8212; that&#8217;s where you really need somebody who is wise and experienced.</p>
<p>I have to digress for a moment to consider what&#8217;s really going on here when I say &quot;the stakes are high.&quot;&nbsp; In this industry, a big stupid mistake where you muck with live running machinery that you shouldn&#8217;t be means thousands of people don&#8217;t get their web page for a while.&nbsp; Compare this to a friend who makes cheese for a living, and mucked around with live running machinery and got badly hurt.&nbsp; A mistake on the production web servers potentially could have destroyed millions of dollars of abstract shareholder value.&nbsp; But nobody was going to <a href="http://www.flickr.com/search/?w=all&amp;q=degloved+arm&amp;m=text">get their arm ripped off</a>.&nbsp; (Warning &#8212; <a href="http://www.flickr.com/search/?w=all&amp;q=degloved+arm&amp;m=text">these pictures</a><a href="http://www.flickr.com/search/?w=all&amp;q=degloved+arm&amp;m=text"> are really gross</a>.)&nbsp; Anyway&#8230;</p>
<p>So what did I do when faced with this dilemma recently?&nbsp; <strong>Me?</strong>&nbsp; <strong>I went for it</strong> &#8212; I hit the button.&nbsp; <strong>And everything was fine</strong>.&nbsp; For a while the site was really slow while the caches refreshed.&nbsp; Many CPUs were pegged from our app tier back through the databases that the whole company relies on.&nbsp; But nothing broke.&nbsp; And when pages finally loaded they looked good.&nbsp; After about an hour, everything was back to normal.&nbsp; Most everybody never noticed a thing.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Just <strong>another exciting, adventurous, yet entirely unglamorous day</strong> in the life of a software engineer.</p>
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		<title>One Laptop Per Child: What I missed at CES</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2007/01/one_laptop_per_.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2007/01/one_laptop_per_.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Jan 2007 22:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Education]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transhumanism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wp.embracingchaos.com/2007/01/one_laptop_per_.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I generally find CES exhausting. It's amazing how far you have to walk to get anywhere in Vegas. It's about a half mile walk from the hotel lobby to the elevators to get to your room. And there's this inflation field caused by everybody living on an expense account -- $4 for a small bottle of water or $10 for a small sandwich. It's worse than an airport. So while I'm always happy to go there and get some hands-on market research and competitive analysis done, or try to close some deals with partners, I'm also generally just as happy...
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I generally find CES exhausting.&nbsp; It&#8217;s amazing how far you have to walk to get anywhere in Vegas.&nbsp; It&#8217;s about a half mile walk from the hotel lobby to the elevators to get to your room.&nbsp; And there&#8217;s this inflation field caused by everybody living on an expense account &#8212; $4 for a small bottle of water or $10 for a small sandwich.&nbsp; It&#8217;s worse than an airport.&nbsp; </p>
<p>So while I&#8217;m always happy to go there and get some&nbsp; hands-on market research and competitive analysis done, or try to close some deals with partners, I&#8217;m also generally just as happy to go home.&nbsp; This year, I didn&#8217;t even cruise the show at all, except to go between our booth and conference rooms, which was fine with me.&nbsp; Until I got home and saw pictures like this&#8230;</p>
<p><img src="http://techepics.com/files/olpc-x0-unboxed.jpg" /></p>
<p>CES 2007 was the unveiling of the prototype hardware for Nick Negroponte&#8217;s $100 laptop, now called XO (or is it OX?), and delivered under the program &quot;One Laptop Per Child&quot; or <a href="http://www.laptop.org/">OLPC</a>.&nbsp; </p>
<p><strong>I absolutely <em>love</em> this initiative.</strong>&nbsp; I consider contributing to it to be one of the most <a href="http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/11/applying_transh.html">moral</a> things anybody can do with their lives.&nbsp; It is one of the only means I can foresee that could help bring the continent of Africa out of poverty &#8212; pure grass roots education.&nbsp; A life goal of mine is to try to help enable <strong>children&#8217;s education to be limited only by their talent and motivation, not by their surroundings</strong>.&nbsp; OLPC is trying to do this.&nbsp; Someday soon I hope to help.</p>
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		<title>New York bans Trans-fats</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/12/new_york_bans_t.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/12/new_york_bans_t.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Dec 2006 16:18:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Chemistry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cooking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wp.embracingchaos.com/2006/12/new_york_bans_t.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I'm a little slow to re-report this, but but I find it fascinating so I want to share it in case you missed it. New York City has banned the use of trans-fats in restaurants. They've done this almost completely (a few exceptions for things like donut shops) and very quickly (by middle of next year) and extremely decisively. I find this amazing for a couple of reasons. First, it drives home the artificial nature of trans-fats. I've thought of them as similar to saturated fats in a lot of ways -- things that are everywhere but should be avoided....
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m a little slow to re-report this, but but I find it fascinating so I want to share it in case you missed it.&nbsp; <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/nyregion/06fat.html?hp&amp;ex=1165467600&amp;en=d40223614d12957e&amp;ei=5094&amp;partner=homepage">New York City has banned the use of trans-fats in restaurants.</a>&nbsp; They&#8217;ve done this almost completely (a few exceptions for things like donut shops) and very quickly (by middle of next year) and extremely decisively.</p>
<p>I find this amazing for a couple of reasons.&nbsp; First, it drives home the artificial nature of trans-fats.&nbsp; I&#8217;ve thought of them as similar to saturated fats in a lot of ways &#8212; things that are everywhere but should be avoided.&nbsp; But thinking about what it would mean to not use them in a restaurant makes clear that they&#8217;re not so omnipresent.&nbsp; No crisco vegetable shortening, and no margarine.&nbsp; Other than that, what <em>ingredients</em> have trans fats in them?&nbsp; Partially hydrogenated vegetable oil &#8212; I&#8217;ve never used that.&nbsp; Have you?</p>
<p>I do want to mention olive oil a bit.&nbsp; Olive oil is primarily a monounsaturated fat, which is a very healthy kind of oil.&nbsp; Heating a monounsaturated oil like can turn it into a trans-fat.&nbsp; Some have concluded from this that cooking with olive oil is unhealthy, and I admit I&#8217;ve spread this rumor too.&nbsp; But from the little research I&#8217;ve managed to dig up (<a href="http://www.oliveoilsource.com/cooking_olive_oil.htm">1</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooking_oil#Health_and_nutrition">2</a>) this process doesn&#8217;t occur enough to be a real issue in traditional cooking settings.&nbsp; I will say this research is thin and minds may change.</p>
<p>I&#8217;d like to say a bit about the chemistry involved here.&nbsp; Trans-fats refers to the configuration of carbons on either side of a double-bond, or a place where the fat is unsaturated &#8212; it&#8217;s a <em>trans</em> rather than a <em>cis</em> configuration.&nbsp; Cis fats have marked bends, while trans fats have kinks in otherwise straight chains. I&#8217;m guessing the reduced mobility of the unsaturated fats caused by<br />
their bends are related to their health benefits, but I&#8217;m not sure.&nbsp; Here are two monounsaturated fats, in <em>cis</em> and <em>trans</em> forms: </p>
<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><center><em>Cis</em> fatty acid: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleic_acid">oleic acid</a><br />
<img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/27/Oleic-acid-3D-vdW.png/300px-Oleic-acid-3D-vdW.png" /><br />
<br />
<img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Oleic-acid-skeletal.svg/300px-Oleic-acid-skeletal.svg.png" /><br />
</center>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><center><em>Trans</em> fatty acid: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elaidic_acid">elaidic acid</a></p>
<p>
<img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bc/Elaidic-acid-3D-vdW.png/300px-Elaidic-acid-3D-vdW.png" /><br />
<br />
<img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/02/Elaidic-acid-2D-skeletal.png/300px-Elaidic-acid-2D-skeletal.png" /><br />
</center>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Also, most of what I&#8217;ve been reading assumes that hydrogenation is the only way that trans fats can occur, which is wrong.&nbsp; Industrial hydrogenation converts unsaturated double-bonds to single bonds, preferentially in the trans configuration.&nbsp; But other chemical processes can do this too.&nbsp; Cows naturally produce small quantities of trans fats.</p>
<p>This law is a great example the government taking a broader interest in society values than any individual constituent would.&nbsp; The government pays for health care, so in this case they do have a direct interest in improving public health, and will likely see a benefit from this, so it&#8217;s not a perfect example of the principal I&#8217;m expounding.&nbsp; In general, I think it&#8217;s the government&#8217;s responsibility to legislate things that are for the &quot;long-term good of society&quot; (in quotes because I recognize that it&#8217;s hard to define or agree upon).&nbsp; This burden falls uniquely on the government when there&#8217;s nobody else who clearly benefits from this kind of legislation.&nbsp; Environmental protection is a classic example of this &#8212; do things that won&#8217;t directly help us or our kids but rather our great grand-kids.&nbsp; The Lorax spoke for the trees for the trees had tongues.&nbsp; Today, NGOs tend to do that speaking, and sometimes the government listens.&nbsp; I&#8217;m surprised, impressed and proud of New York for this bold move!</p>
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		<title>Buy More Stuff!</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/12/buy_more_stuff.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/12/buy_more_stuff.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Dec 2006 08:03:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Humor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seattle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wp.embracingchaos.com/2006/12/buy_more_stuff.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some people complain that the holidays have become too commercial. That the holiest of christian holidays has become an excuse to accumulate material things, and that the true meaning, whatever that was, is being lost. I disagree. I think now is the time to Buy More Stuff! I have to give props out to all my friends who have been dutifully going down to Westlake center on the weekends to spread the good word. Someday soon I hope to have time to join them. The only thing that really surprises me about this is that some (clearly unamerican) people argue...
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some people complain that the holidays have become too commercial.&nbsp; That the holiest of christian holidays has become an excuse to accumulate material things, and that the true meaning, whatever that was, is being lost.</p>
<p>I disagree.&nbsp; I think now is the time to</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 1.4em;"><a href="http://www.buymorestuff.org"><strong>Buy More Stuff!</strong></a></span></p>
<p>I have to give props out to all my friends who have been dutifully going down to Westlake center on the weekends to spread the good word.&nbsp; Someday soon I hope to have time to join them.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelholden/308075996/"><img width="500" height="332" border="0" src="http://static.flickr.com/106/308075996_676ef57a6c.jpg" alt="Buy More Stuff" /></a></p>
<p>The only thing that really surprises me about this is that some (clearly unamerican) people argue with them.&nbsp; My friends have gotten into prolonged arguments with shoppers and other passersby who don&#8217;t like the message they&#8217;re&nbsp; spreading.&nbsp; My friends retort with &quot;How could you possibly tell your family and friends that you love them except by buying them more stuff?&quot;&nbsp; But even this doesn&#8217;t persuade those who are persistently disturbed by this message.</p>
<p>Maybe someday they&#8217;ll get it.&nbsp; But I&#8217;m not holding out much hope.</p>
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		<title>Applying Transhumanist Morality to Career Choices</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/11/applying_transh.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/11/applying_transh.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 21:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Education]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ego]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transhuman Morality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transhumanism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wp.embracingchaos.com/2006/11/applying_transh.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Transhumanist Morality is the idea that we should consider the impact of our actions in the context of the millennium-scale history of humanity. Specifically, I think the only way we will avoid some kind of dystopian apocalyptic fate is by seeking salvation through technology. In this context, moral actions are those that increase the probability that as a species we achieve technological salvation before we blow ourselves up. I’d like to explore what this means in very practical terms by analyzing a number of jobs I’ve had and considered and seen my friends do over the years. SEO for e-Commerce...
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Transhumanist Morality</u> is the idea that we should<br />
consider the impact of our actions in the context of the millennium-scale history<br />
of humanity. Specifically, I think the<br />
only way we will avoid some kind of dystopian apocalyptic fate is by seeking<br />
salvation through technology. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In this context, moral actions are those that increase the<br />
probability that as a species we achieve technological salvation before we blow<br />
ourselves up. I’d like to explore what<br />
this means in very practical terms by analyzing a number of jobs I’ve had and<br />
considered and seen my friends do over the years.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>SEO for e-Commerce</h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">I once seriously considered a job doing Search Engine<br />
Optimization for an e-Commerce company. They offered me truckloads of money to get their web pages to the top of<br />
the google rankings. The work would have<br />
been technically fascinating, but I ended up rejecting the job largely on moral<br />
grounds. I just couldn’t feel good<br />
about the work I’d be doing.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Even without a transhuman perspective, this job clearly has a zero-sum impact on society. Reverse-engineering pagerank isn’t actually building value. Move sales away from other companies and<br />
towards your own only has a positive impact on society if you genuinely believe<br />
your company is creating more value for the consumer than your competitors<br />
do. This kind of corporate<br />
righteousness is dangerous and I just didn’t believe it.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Pure marketing efforts like SEO might as well be selling<br />
used-cars for all the good it has on the long-term story-arc of humanity.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>Electronic Music Systems</h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">While at first blush this might seem trivial, I actually do<br />
consider this work (my current primary employment) to be moral from a<br />
transhuman perspective.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Making it easier for people to consume music they love makes<br />
their leisure time more efficient and effective. This makes people happier. Following the logic of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow's_hierarchy_of_needs">Maslow’s Hierarchy of Human needs</a>, happy people<br />
have more energy to devote to other causes. So by making people happier, I’m creating more capacity to solve the<br />
meaningful problems. It’s an indirect<br />
effect, but I think it is helping.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A reasonable counter-argument to this is that great creativity<br />
often seems to come from the emotionally tortured, especially in the fine<br />
arts. But I don’t think this pattern<br />
holds up for great scientists and engineers.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>Direct Political Activism</h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are many reasons to consider the current political<br />
regime in the US immoral from a transhuman perspective. The war on terror stands a chance of cutting<br />
this whole conversation short by achieving the dystopian outcome in this<br />
generation. Stifling stem-cell research<br />
is directly preventing technological advancement. Regressive judgmental social policies like discrimination based<br />
on sexual preference makes many people miserable and stifles creativity per the<br />
earlier Maslow argument. This<br />
government is certainly doing plenty to bring about the eventual destruction of<br />
our technologically advanced society.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But the pendulum of politics swings very naturally back and<br />
forth.&nbsp; (As evidenced by last week&#8217;s election.)&nbsp; Convincing a few people to<br />
change their votes really doesn’t matter much because the aggregate political<br />
mood has a will of its own. Trying to<br />
alter that will by changing fundamental systems like openness of the press or<br />
campaign funding policies or society’s sense of engagement in politics is<br />
definitely more worthwhile since that work is better leveraged. But working on kicking out the current<br />
damaging regime is a short-term fix that will just get undone after another<br />
political cycle. There is a small<br />
chance that kicking them out prevents catastrophe, and for that reason it’s<br />
worthwhile, but I still haven’t lost my faith in the checks and balances in the<br />
whole system.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>Renewable Energy</h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">Running out of energy resources is one easy-to-foresee way<br />
that our advanced society could collapse. As such, work on renewable energy helps to delay or even prevent this<br />
set of doomsday scenarios.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This work is decidedly moral because it extends our runway<br />
giving us longer to do what we need to before things go seriously south. This provides an indirect linear improvement<br />
in the situation. Indirect because it’s<br />
only addressing one possible set of doomsday scenarios. Linear because it’s directly combating the<br />
problem directly – it’s not clear how good work here enables faster development<br />
of good work in other areas.&nbsp; But this definitely helps.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>Research into Neuroscience, Robotics, Computational Linguistics, etc</h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">These and other fields offer great promise in the near term<br />
to advance technology in the direction of technological salvation. A confluence of these technologies with a<br />
few that we don’t understand yet have the potential to realize various scifi<br />
visions of overcoming the physical limitations that will otherwise painfully<br />
drag us back to a more primitive existence.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As such, work in these fields is directing helping to solve<br />
the problem. This is highly moral<br />
work.&nbsp; It is leveraged in that these advances will spur other advances.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>Working on Internet Explorer or Google</h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">Almost 10 years ago I got to contribute in a very small way to IE5.&nbsp; Back then browsers were still evolving quickly.&nbsp; It’s not as clear of the value or working on Firefox today, but back then building better browser technology was one of the most<br />
direct contributions to increased human intelligence. Today the best analogy would probably be working on search for Google or MSN.&nbsp; The ubiquitization of the internet has dramatically improved<br />
people’s ability to solve complex problems quickly. I really don’t know what technological salvation will involve,<br />
but I am sure that getting there will require solving a great many complex<br />
problems.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Work like this that facilitates human communication and<br />
problem solving is extremely moral. By<br />
facilitating all forms of problem-solving, it is accelerating the pace of<br />
advancement in nearly every other field we can consider. This kind of exponential growth is what<br />
we’re gonna need to avoid the bad scenarios.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<h2>e-Learning</h2>
<p class="MsoNormal">Electronic learning systems have the potential to improve<br />
the quality of education for everybody everywhere. This means enabling people to better solve complex problems in a<br />
very direct way: they’re smarter.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I firmly believe that the next decade is going to see a<br />
revolution in education at all levels. The net result will be an educational system which is extremely<br />
meritocratic, enabling anybody who is motivated to achieve intellectual skills<br />
close to their full intrinsic potential. A smarter population will make solving every technological challenge in<br />
the future easier. As such, I currently<br />
don’t see any activity more moral than building electronic learning systems.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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		<title>Interesting Times in China</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/11/may_you_live_in.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/11/may_you_live_in.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Nov 2006 15:10:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geography]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transhumanism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travel]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA["May you live in interesting times." -Ancient Chinese Proverb (actually, it isn't.) The idea behind this saying is that times of rapid change are generally quite painful. Historically interesting times are those involving wars and revolutions -- things where lots of people die. Growth and improvement have only come through very slow gradual change. But in today's China, this is anything but true. Right now is one of the most interesting times in China's long history, and for the majority of the country, it's fantastic. (If we all work hard, that kind of intersting time might be behind us.) We...
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>&quot;May you live in interesting times.&quot;</strong><br />&nbsp; &nbsp; -Ancient Chinese Proverb (actually, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times">it isn&#8217;t</a>.)</p>
<p>The idea behind this saying is that times of rapid change are generally quite painful.&nbsp; Historically interesting times are those involving wars and revolutions &#8212; things where lots of people die.&nbsp; Growth and improvement have only come through very slow gradual change.&nbsp; But in today&#8217;s China, this is anything but true.&nbsp; Right now is one of the most interesting times in China&#8217;s long history, and for the majority of the country, it&#8217;s fantastic.&nbsp; (<a href="http://www.embracingchaos.com/transhumanist_morality/index.html">If we all work hard</a>, that kind of intersting time might be behind us.)</p>
<p>We read about how the Chinese economy is glowing red hot.&nbsp; Their sustained GDP growth rate would make any head of a western central bank terrified.&nbsp; In any established economy, a 9% annual growth rate would last maybe a couple years before it turned into inflation, recession or both.&nbsp; But a very clever set of communist economists are managing to ride the bleeding edge of rapid growth far longer and further than I think anybody outside the country would have believed possible.&nbsp; I&#8217;ve been reading these cold dry numbers in the same places you have.&nbsp; But being here in China now, these numbers are very real.</p>
<p><a title="Shenzhen skyline" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/leodirac/297653191/"><img width="500" height="270" alt="Shenzhen skyline" src="http://static.flickr.com/111/297653191_9549302348.jpg" /></a></p>
<p>Consider <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&amp;hl=en&amp;q=shenzhen,+china&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;z=11&amp;ll=22.533488,114.130096&amp;spn=0.289839,0.692139&amp;t=k&amp;om=1&amp;iwloc=addr">Shenzhen</a>, just across the psuedo-international border with Hongkong.&nbsp; Today Shenzhen&#8217;s greater metropolitan area has over 10 million people.&nbsp; But just 28 years ago when Deng Xiaoping decided to start developing this city, it had but 25,000.&nbsp; Imagine that &#8212; a city nearly the size of LA or NY that was consciously willed into existence in less then a generation.&nbsp; It almost defies belief.</p>
<p>Having just left Shenzhen, I&#8217;m currently in Xiamen, which is the closest mainland city to Taiwan.&nbsp; On a clear day like today, you can see outlying islands that are politically controlled by the Republic of China, the Taiwanese government.&nbsp; There is a large and famous sign here pointed out towards Taiwan that reads &quot;One Country, Two systems, Together One China.&quot;&nbsp; The Taiwanese have a similar sign on the other side.</p>
<p><a title="One China sign" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/leodirac/289470679/"><img width="500" height="233" alt="One China" src="http://static.flickr.com/116/289470679_306f3ce35c.jpg" /></a></p>
<p>NPR recently aired <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6241993">a story</a> about the northern border of North Korean.&nbsp; There&#8217;s a theme park that is constantly empty and a small family whose job might be simply to picnic under an umbrella to demonstrate to the outside world how happy and successful the closed communist system in North Korea is.&nbsp; Possibly for similar reasons, Xiamen also has a theme park on the coast facing Taiwan.&nbsp; But its big roller coaster is occupied until 4:00 AM every night.&nbsp; On weekends happy local families fill the beaches with their families.&nbsp; I came here for a holiday 5.5 years ago during Spring Festival.&nbsp; There are so many new buildings and bridges and tunnels and freeways that I hardly recognize it now.&nbsp; Real estate prices boggle the mind in a way that only Manhattenites could imagine.&nbsp; There is also a huge new &quot;trourist ferry terminal&quot; under construction here.&nbsp; Its stated plans are for ferry service to Hong Kong and to host cruise ships.&nbsp; The obvious long-term purpose of this project is in the fulfillment of that big red sign.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Shenzhen is thriving as a psuedo-port for the reunification of Hong Kong.&nbsp; I have no doubt that within 10 or 20 years, Xiamen will be doing the same with Taiwan.&nbsp; All polluting factories have been ordered out of Xiamen in order to clean up the air.&nbsp; The communists clearly want to make Xiamen attractive.&nbsp; I used to buy in to the American political ideas that we must protect Taiwan from China&#8217;s oppressive government.&nbsp; Taiwanese certainly used to look at it this way &#8212; a friend grew up there singing songs about how they would liberate the mainlanders from the communists.&nbsp; But taking a longer term view of the situation, if I were a Taiwanese resident today, I would look forward to reunification with the world&#8217;s largest economy.</p>
<p>Again, talk about economics can easily obscure what&#8217;s really happening here.&nbsp; Millions of people are graduating from poor subsistance lifestyles up to the comfort and safety of a working class life.&nbsp; Or up to the relative luxury of a middle-class life.&nbsp; Or even to the genuine luxury of being able to buy whatever they want &#8212; it&#8217;s not that uncommon here.&nbsp; The difference in the quality of life of my friends and the other people I see here is obvious from just 5 years ago &#8212; be it having hot water in every room of the house, owning a car, or <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/leodirac/289510460/">kite-surfing</a> in their spare time.&nbsp; These huge cities are physical manifestations of people&#8217;s lives being improved on a grand historic scale.&nbsp; The excitement is palpable.&nbsp; Positive energy infuses everything.&nbsp; A note to Naomi Klein: this is what sweat-shops do to people&#8217;s lives.&nbsp; These certainly are interesting times, and I feel priveledged to be able to experience them first-hand.</p>
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		<title>Reading Enron&#8217;s E-mail</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/10/enron_explorer.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/10/enron_explorer.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Oct 2006 06:08:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Humor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Ever wonder what Jeff Skilling and Ken Lay were saying to each other before it all fell apart? Now you can read it for yourself. Check out the Enron Explorer. It lets you browse over 200,000 internal Enron e-mails. It's got a nifty java applet for exploring connections and even has shortcuts for interesting topics like the FBI and shredding. Let's hear it for information democracy! Thanks to Charles Armstrong for putting this together.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ever wonder what Jeff Skilling and Ken Lay were saying to each other before it all fell apart?&nbsp; Now you can read it for yourself.&nbsp; Check out the <a href="http://enron.trampolinesystems.com/">Enron Explorer</a>.&nbsp; It lets you browse over 200,000 internal Enron e-mails.&nbsp; It&#8217;s got a nifty java applet for exploring connections and even has shortcuts for interesting topics like the <a href="http://enron.trampolinesystems.com/search/FBI">FBI</a> and <a href="http://enron.trampolinesystems.com/search/Shredding">shredding</a>.&nbsp; Let&#8217;s hear it for information democracy!</p>
<p>Thanks to Charles Armstrong for putting this together.</p>
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		<title>Transhumanism: Evolution beyond biology</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/10/transhumanism_e.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/10/transhumanism_e.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Oct 2006 05:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Personal Growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transhuman Morality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transhumanism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uploading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I consider myself a transhumanist. I spend probably too much time thinking about very long-terrm trends of humanity. Some of the trends I see seem obvious to the point of being irrefutable, while others I'm sure are controversial. Nevertheless, I'll lay out a few of the basic tenants of transhumanism, and begin to explain why they lead to the very deep and personal implications they have for me. Computers are getting faster and more powerful. As they do so, they're helping humans be smarter. Maybe not invidual humans, as some studies have shown that things like e-mail and powerpoint can...
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I consider myself a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism">transhumanist</a>.&nbsp; I spend probably too much time thinking about very long-terrm trends of humanity.&nbsp; Some of the trends I see seem obvious to the point of being irrefutable, while others I&#8217;m sure are controversial.&nbsp; Nevertheless, I&#8217;ll lay out a few of the basic tenants of transhumanism, and begin to explain why they lead to the very deep and personal implications they have for me.</p>
<p>Computers are getting faster and more powerful.&nbsp; As they do so, they&#8217;re helping humans be smarter.&nbsp; Maybe not invidual humans, as some studies have shown that things like e-mail and powerpoint can actually make people stupider for some definition.&nbsp; I can see the truth in this by considering several very smart friends of mine who don&#8217;t actually remember their spouse&#8217;s cell phone numbers.&nbsp; Because they don&#8217;t need to.&nbsp; Their <a href="http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/cell-phone.htm">computer familiars</a> remember these things for them &#8212; the external brain.&nbsp; In combination we get smarter &#8212; the synergy of humans and computers or groups of humans connected through computers &#8212; whatever you want to call these aggregate life-forms, they are way better at solving difficult problems than any individual human was just 15 years ago, when there was little e-mail and no Google.&nbsp; In just 15 years, we&#8217;ve seen massive improvements in our ability to solve problems!</p>
<p>Moreover, technological change is accelerating.&nbsp; These changes aren&#8217;t going to stop until we have completely overcome biology.&nbsp; Unless something horrible happens.&nbsp; Which it could.&nbsp; To be explicit, I see humanity facing two possible futures on the multi-century timescale:</p>
<ul>
<li>Enlightenment by transcending the limitations of biology through technology</li>
<li>A dramatic, catastrophic, probably violent and painful return to a simpler way of life</li>
</ul>
<p>Because of this, I feel a sense of <em>transhumanist morality</em> obliging me to dedicate my life&#8217;s work to striving for the first option: species-wide enlightenment through technology.</p>
<p>I plan on writing a lot more on this topic.&nbsp; But I wanted to start by stating a thesis along with a few basic ideas.</p>
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		<title>Li&#8217;l hip-hop review: White &amp; Nerdy</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/10/lil_hiphop_revi.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/10/lil_hiphop_revi.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2006 06:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Humor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Music]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I was thinking about getting all serious-like and talking about how cultural relativism makes it hard for me to judge the immorality of gangsta rap that glorifies crime. And I'll still rant just a bit. But really my main motivation is to shout out props to Weird Al for his new song "White &#038; Nerdy". (For extra entertainment, watch the questionably-legal video at youtube, at least until they take it down.) It's parodying a song by Chamillionaire that glorifies smuggling drugs. Nice work dude -- way to be a positive influence on other people's lives. This is one of the...
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was thinking about getting all serious-like and talking about how <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_relativism">cultural relativism</a> makes it hard for me to judge the immorality of gangsta rap that glorifies crime.&nbsp; And I&#8217;ll still rant just a bit.&nbsp; But really my main motivation is to shout out props to&nbsp; <a href="http://www.rhapsody.com/weirdalyankovic">Weird Al</a> for his new song &quot;<a href="http://play.rhapsody.com/weirdalyankovic/straightouttalynwood/track-1">White &amp; Nerdy</a>&quot;.&nbsp; (For extra entertainment, watch the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xEzGIuY7kw">questionably-legal video</a> at youtube, at least until they take it down.)</p>
<p>It&#8217;s parodying a song by <a href="http://www.rhapsody.com/chamillionaire">Chamillionaire</a> that glorifies <a href="http://play.rhapsody.com/chamillionaire/thesoundofrevenge/track-4">smuggling drugs</a>.&nbsp; Nice work dude &#8212; way to be a positive influence on other people&#8217;s lives.&nbsp; This is one of the reasons I really love <a href="http://www.rhapsody.com/eminem">Eminem.</a>&nbsp; He sings about <a href="http://play.rhapsody.com/eminem/theslimshadylp/track-9">how crappy life in the hood is</a>.&nbsp; You can call me white and nerdy for liking <a href="http://www.rhapsody.com/beastieboys">white rappers</a>, and you wouldn&#8217;t be far off &#8212; I got a soldering gun and I edit wikipedia.&nbsp; But I don&#8217;t encourage strangers to pick up my bad habits.&nbsp; Like Eminem says, keep off the <a href="http://www.starbucks.com">addictive drugs</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Starbucks: Corporate dope pushers</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/09/starbucks_dope_.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/09/starbucks_dope_.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Sep 2006 22:18:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal Growth]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[This afternoon in my office's cafeteria I found a new refridgerator stocked with tasty beverages. Starbucks Iced Coffee in a can. And guess what: it's free. For now, at least. Want some candy little boy? C'mon, try it. I remember a couple of years ago seeing them giving away cans of their then-new double-shot canned caffeine high downtown on the sidewalk. They'll get you hooked and then you come back begging for more, $5 in hand. Sound like any other industry we know? Many years ago I remember a friend of mine saying she was investing in Starbucks because she...
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This afternoon in my office&#8217;s cafeteria I found a new refridgerator stocked with tasty beverages.&nbsp; Starbucks Iced Coffee in a can.&nbsp; And guess what: it&#8217;s free.&nbsp; For now, at least.&nbsp; Want some candy little boy?&nbsp; C&#8217;mon, try it.&nbsp; I remember a couple of years ago seeing them giving away cans of their then-new double-shot canned caffeine high downtown on the sidewalk.&nbsp; They&#8217;ll get you hooked and then you come back begging for more, $5 in hand.&nbsp; Sound like any other industry we know?</p>
<p>Many years ago I remember a friend of mine saying she was investing in Starbucks because she saw it as an aggressively run company that sells an addictive product.&nbsp; Wise choice she made.&nbsp; I&#8217;ve also heard several amusing stories recently about how Starbucks got their venture capital.</p>
<p>At <a href="http://bschool.washington.edu">business school</a> lectures I&#8217;ve had at least two VC&#8217;s tell me this exact story: Howard Shultz comes into their boardroom to pitch them on how he&#8217;s going to charge $5 for a commodity product that regularly sells for 25 cents.&nbsp; The VCs listened politely to his presentation, waited for him to leave the room and then laughed their asses off.&nbsp; This must have happened to him a lot, since I&#8217;ve heard about at least two incidents of it.&nbsp; Barring hindsite, it was a reasonable reaction, IMO.&nbsp; Now I hear my b-school friends trying to figure out how to charge $5 per brick for really high-end bricks.&nbsp; There&#8217;s one key missing element to this plan: mortaring a row of really nice bricks on Tuesday doesn&#8217;t give you blinding headaches on Wednesday if you decide your wall is all done being built.</p>
<p>Interestingly, in order to actually secure funding, Shultz had to prove that urban coffee markets are/were really far from saturation.&nbsp; To demonstrate the almost insatiable desire of modern yuppies to suck down sweet foamy caffeine drinks, he opened 2 Starbucks retail stores <em>on the same block</em> of downtown Chicago.&nbsp; The fact that both stores quickly became profitable was proof enough to the investors that this business was going to go somewhere.</p>
<p>And here I am, freshly back on the wagon, having endured my blinding headaches, staring at these two tall tasty tins of temptation sitting on my desk&#8230;&nbsp; rat bastards&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Rights vs Responsibilities</title>
		<link>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/09/rights_vs_respo.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.embracingchaos.com/2006/09/rights_vs_respo.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Sep 2006 18:36:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>leodirac</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Personal Growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal Values]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wp.embracingchaos.com/2006/09/rights_vs_respo.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hoefstede identified several axes on which cultures differ. One of them relates to whether people in a culture tend to think more about rights or responsibilities. In the US we talk a lot about people's rights, and relatively little about people's responsibilities. Civil rights. Bill of rights. Right to life. etc. Europeans tend to swing towards the other side of that spectrum. For example, a sense of responsibility for impact on future generations tends to leads to valuing environmental issues more greatly. The communist party line in China is also very concerned with responsibilities, but in a somewhat different way....
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hoefstede identified several <a href="http://www.geert-hofstede.com/">axes</a> on which cultures differ.&nbsp; One of them relates to whether people in a culture tend to think more about rights or responsibilities.&nbsp; In the US we talk a lot about people&#8217;s rights, and relatively little about people&#8217;s responsibilities.&nbsp; Civil rights.&nbsp; Bill of rights.&nbsp; Right to life.&nbsp; etc. Europeans tend to swing towards the other side of that spectrum.&nbsp; For example, a sense of responsibility for impact on future generations tends to leads to valuing environmental issues more greatly.</p>
<p>The communist party line in China is also very concerned with responsibilities, but in a somewhat different way.&nbsp; When a Chinese person gets put in jail for speaking out against the government, Americans cry human<em> rights</em> abuses.&nbsp; The Chinese might respond by saying that the stability of the government is more important for the entire population than the welfare of any individual.&nbsp; The jailed person was not fulfilling their <em>responsibility</em> to the rest of the population.&nbsp; A little twisted, a little tautological, but an interesting perspective nonetheless.</p>
<p>Individuals also vary along this same spectrum.&nbsp; Some people are much more duty-driven than others.&nbsp; I&#8217;m thinking of Frederick, the &quot;slave of duty&quot; in The Pirates of Penzance, probably because of the <a href="http://www.pattersong.org/pirates.htm">fabulous performance</a> I just saw.&nbsp; But I digress.&nbsp; Other people have very little regard for how their actions affect others, and are consumed with themselves.</p>
<p>Over the decades, I have swung back and forth on this spectrum without realizing it.&nbsp; Now that I understand what&#8217;s going on a bit more, I am consciously choosing to think about the world more in terms of responsibilities &#8212; my responsibilities to my friends, my family, my community and to the world at large.&nbsp; I also have a responsibility to myself, but I try to consider it in balance with the other responsibilities I have.</p>
<p>This is not to say that I support human rights abuses in China.&nbsp; But I do think that American collective psychology is fairly conceited, and greedy in a short-sited kind of way.&nbsp; &nbsp; I should really gather all that paperwork together and turn in my application for an EU passport.&nbsp; Not that I think I could ever really escape from my fabulous community here in Seattle, but it never hurts to have options.</p>
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